Forget Republicans: Unions could destroy Democrats again (Susan J. Demas column)
People take part in a labor group rally opposed to Governor Rick Snyder's policies at the State Capitol Building in Lansing Wednesday, March 16, 2011/ MLive.com file photo
Frankly, when Democrats win in Michigan, it's primarily due to luck or the national mood. Because thanks to their cozy relationships with the unions -- particularly the UAW -- it's sure as heck not due to strategy.
All you have to do is look at the rapidly decaying corpse ofProposal 2 to see that.
That's the amendment that would enshrine collective bargaining in the Constitution, and also conveniently repeal 100-odd anti-union laws that Gov. Snyder and Republicans have barreled through the Legislature in the last couple years.
The unions are pouring $25 million into an almost certain losing effort. Why is it going to lose? Well, it doesn't help that it appears that UAW President Bob King was flirting with an alliance with Ambassador Bridge billionaire Matty Moroun, which smells rancid.
But the main reason is that the business group against Prop 2, Citizens Protecting Michigan's Constitution, is running a stomach-churning campaign scaring voters into thinking that Proposal 2 will unleash child molesters in the classroom.
What was the response? Nothing, at first. Then there was some weak ad a week later with Wayne County Sheriff Benny Napoleon vaguely saying that Prop 2 will protect kids.
Yeah, that'll do it.
While it's a completely disgusting way to lose a campaign, it's also entirely predictable. Ballot questions are always decided on scare tactics. (Remember those evil science project ads the Right to Life crowd unleashed to try to kill the '08 embryonic stem cell amendment?)
You'd think $25 million would be enough to counter something that's untrue, especially when you knew it was coming and you're outspending your opponents. But, alas, no.
Think about what $25 million -- or even half of it -- could do for Democrats in Michigan. That could win back the House or the state Supreme Court. But that money has already been spoken for, and it's not coming out.
Why? Because Bob King and his advisers say so. And as anyone who follows politics in Michigan knows, he's the one who pulls the strings in the Democratic Party, not large donors, like in the GOP, and not Democratic Party Chair Mark Brewer.
King's judgment is just impeccable. Just talk to Democrats who are still grousing about his push in 2010 to slather all the money on clear loser Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, who Snyder trounced by 18 points.
Sure, the Democrats could have tried to keep the Supreme Court as a check on a GOP Legislature and governor. They could have bet on Jocelyn Benson, who had a real shot against now-Secretary of State Ruth Johnson, she of the righteous crusade to stop Michigan's 20.5 million illegal immigrants from voting.
But that would require strategy, which is verboten in the Michigan Democratic Party.
As I wrote in the spring, it was a huge risk for labor to take on Prop 2, but leaders thought this would bolster Democratic turnout and was their best shot to undo the GOP agenda.
They felt backed into a corner. An Indiana-style Right to Work law was inevitable, in their minds, and Snyder wouldn't have their back. So they needed to be proactive with a constitutional amendment, even though it was an uphill battle even in their own polling.
But if Prop 2 fails -- which internal and media polls indicate it's on track to -- Michigan is virtually guaranteed to get Right to Work, or some iteration of it. Because Republicans like Rep. Mike Shirkey (R-Clarklake) will claim a mandate.
"If you're going to shoot the king," a prominent Democratic leader warned me, "you'd better not miss."
That's advice that person never got to give before King giddily announced his plans for Proposal 2 in Washington, D.C. -- not Michigan -- before consulting with legislative leaders. Some union officials also felt left in the dark -- although it's true that King didn't act alone. No one put the brakes on.
There was little consideration of what might happen if the unions lost Prop 2. But that's where the discussion should be now.
Labor will have to try to cut a deal with Snyder to veto Right to Work, but I wouldn't count on that happening, in spite of his waffling on the issue.
The governor was personally offended that the unions went this route. In his mind, he stuck his neck out by tamping down the RTW fury in declaring that he didn't want a bill on his desk. And then the unions spring Prop 2 on him. The nerve of these guys.
Now with the rumored King-Moroun machinations, that should be the final blow. (It's also sent liberals like Jack Lessenberry into a state of befuddled despair). Snyder wants a new Detroit-Canada bridge built, something Moroun has spent millions fighting. The guv thought he had the unions on board, but they went behind his back and dealt with the man who's a cartoon caricature of an evil billionaire.
And the best part is that thanks to the exposure, the unions almost certainly aren't going to get a dime for Prop 2.
Labor has unwittingly played right into Snyder's hands. That couldn't be clearer with how much Lt. Gov. Brian Calley and the administration have played up stories about the alleged union-Moroun alliance. Why, a cynic might even say they leaked it to the Detroit News' Nolan Finley.
Here's another clue where Snyder is at. He routinely rails against Prop 2 as the "worst of the worst" ballot measures. Not Prop 1 that would kill his Emergency Manager law. Not Prop 6 that could thwart his bridge project. Not Prop 5 that would bring state government to a halt by requiring a two-thirds vote on tax increases.
No, Snyder is not at his heart a good government reformer (Sorry, Center for Michigan). He's a businessman, and a good one.
The unions made the fundamental mistake of not knowing their enemy. And then they went on to make a series of clumsy missteps thereafter.
After Proposal 2 goes down and Gov. Snyder is presented a Right to Work bill, he'll sigh that it didn't have to come to this. And my bet is that he'll sign it.
That will be the decimation of the labor movement, some 75 years after the sit-down strikes in Flint. A fine legacy for Michigan's union leadership, indeed.
Susan J. Demas is a political analyst for Michigan Information & Research Service (MIRS). She can be reached at sjdemas@gmail.com. Follow her on Twitter here.
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